Numbers: Neither HRC nor Sanders Will Have Clinched by Convention

johnlaurits.com

5/29, This is where we stand

John Laurits    May 28, 2016

fixed 29th


This is where we stand
(as of 5/29)

Greetings, my friends! (And greetings, my trolls, too, I s’ppose)

A good friend suggested to me that I should write a new update & general overview of the delegate math and I thought that was an exceptional idea, so — here we are. If you find yourself wondering, “wait, where exactly are we, again?” then, you’ve come to the right place & this article is for you! And I’m glad that you’ve asked — I’ll show you, follow me!

A Brief Summary of
What Will Happen at the Democratic Convention

First, let’s go over the basics, again —

The first thing that everyone should understand is that Hillary Clinton will not be clinching the nomination before the convention, despite what the talking heads are saying! They are vipers & deceivers — I suspect that they weren’t hugged enough or something. Anyway — while they talk away, I will show you the cold, hard math that proves my point.

A candidate needs 2,383 delegates to clinch the nomination. This is because there are 4,765 total total delegates(4,051 pledged delegates + 714 “super-delegates”) and 2,383 is half+1 of that number. If a candidate had that number, there would be no way for another candidate to catch up. Neither Clinton or Sanders will be getting that number of delegates before the convention. This is because:

SUPER DELEGATES DO NOT VOTE UNTIL JULY 25Th

Now, since the super-delegates don’t vote until the national convention on July 25th (also, they can switch as many times as they’d like, until then), the only delegates that are really available right now are the pledged delegates. Since the pledged delegates are the only real numbers we have (at the moment), those are what we should pay attention to. 

Now, the delegate totals (as estimated by the Green Papers) stands at…

Clinton  1,770
Sanders 1,500

To get to 2,383 that clinches the nomination, Clinton would need…

2,383 – 1,770 = 613

Clinton would need to secure 613 pledged delegates out of the 781 remaining, which means that she would need…

613 ÷ 781 = 0.7848 or about 78.5%

Clinton would need to win 78.5% of the remaining contests and that — obviously — is not going to happen. Of course, Sanders won’t get to that number with pledged delegates alone, either — that means that both candidates will be going to the national convention in Philadelphia with less than 2,383.

Neither candidate will have won before the national convention and — for better or for worse — the super delegates willdecide who the democratic nominee will be.

 

So — where are we, exactly?

Potentially, each candidate can still secure the majority of pledged delegates, which is 2,026, before July 25th. Our goal, therefore, is simple: to win as many pledged delegates as possible before the national convention! Let’s take a look at the numbers we’re working with, now…

Again, the total, as it stands right now (5/28) is thus:

Clinton  1,770
Sanders 1,500

So, adding each candidates totals together, we arrive at the total delegates won, so far…

1,770 + 1,500 = 3,270

3,270 delegates awarded, so far — and Sanders has taken 1,500 of them, which means…

1,500 ÷ 3,270 = 0.4587 or about 45.9%

…which means that Bernie Sanders, thus far, has 45.9% of the pledged delegates — and Clinton stands with 54.1%.

pie chart

Now, what numbers do we need to get the majority?

Well, the corporate media will tell you that it’s impossible — but they won’t ever show you why it’s impossible because it isn’t. They’ll just talk & talk & talk until the cows come home — I, however, say that we can get that nomination and, unlike the corporate media, I will show you why I believe that — with math! You decide who to believe.

The Numbers That We Need

To arrive at 2,026, we subtract his current total from the target. Bernie will need…

2,026 – 1,500 = 526

Sanders now needs 526 more pledged delegates to take the lead. To find out how much we need to win by to get that, we’ll divide 526 by the number of remaining delegates, 781

526 ÷ 781 = 0.673

We need 67.3% of the remaining delegates to get 2,026 — indeed, an up-hill batle, as the Sand-Man says! Well, that’smost of the truth, anyway…

Bar graph

 

These numbers are actually a wee bit (okay, fine — a lot) trickier than they seem because of the DNC’s often-bizarre & overly-complicated methods for picking the presidential nominee. I’ve been holding off on this part for a while, now — but I think the time has come for me to explain just how tricky this all really is…

A Quick Look at the Excruciatingly Boring State Convention Process

A full explanation of the democratic presidential primaries’ processes would take forever and probably kill at least a few dozen of you with boredom — so I won’t get too deep, here — but here’s a basic explanation of why these numbers aren’t set in stone (and why that will probably work out in our favor…)

Many of you may have noticed that, every once-in-a-while, Bernie Sanders appears to mysteriously obtain a few extra delegates from this or that state — this is largely because of our superior delegate-kung-fu, among other reasons.

Seriously, though — most people are unaware that the delegate counts listed in the days after a caucus or primary aren’t the final count — they are merely initial projections. That’s right, you heard me — they’re estimates based on the results of the vote. The real delegate allocation in each state is not finalized until their state convention (which is basically the reason that what happened in Nevada was important).

Anyway, it’s headache-inducingly complex — for those of you who want to know more, I heartily recommend Don Ford’s articles, as a place to start. What’s important for you to understand is simply that we’ve already gained quite a few delegates at the state conventions. For instance, we retroactively gained 3 delegates from Colorado, 1from Ohio, 1 from Mississippi, and 1 from Maryland. The best part is that each delegate that we get at the state conventions gives Bernie Sanders +1 and it actually takes -1 from Clinton — in other words, each delegate nets us +2!

The thing about these state conventions is that they happen well after the vote happens, so it will take time to see the results –but there are still 33 of them scheduled to happen, between now & June 25th. Click here to find out whether your state has already had their convention and get involved!* The more people who get involved, the better our chances will be to gain delegates there, cutting down our target % in the upcoming races!
[*Please, see the note at the bottom of this page for more info on how to get involved with the state convention process.]

 

To Sum It All Up

I know that I just blasted you with a ridiculous amount of information and I hope you’re not feeling too overwhelmed —but it had to be done. You must be armed with the facts so that the media will not be able to demoralize you in the coming weeks! To make it up to you, here’s a cliff-notes version, to use at your convenience in the future:

♦ Neither candidate will be clinching the nomination before the convention because there aren’t enough delegates left and the super-delegates do not vote until the convention on July 25th.

♦ The real delegate count, as of May 28th, for Bernie Sanders & Hillary Clinton is 1,500/45.9% vs. 1,770/54.1%

♦ Bernie Sanders needs to win about 67.3% of the remaining pledged delegates to secure the majority, or 2,026 pledged delegates.

♦ That percentage is liable to shift as we make little gains at the state conventions, most of which will take place over the month of June (don’t worry, I’ll keep you updated but watch for little changes to the delegate counts on websites like the Green Papers).

My friends, that’s all I have for you, tonight — but, now that the People’s Math Front is quite well-funded, you can expect very regular updates on all the numbers that the media won’t tell you about! Tomorrow, I will be preparing reports for you all on the June 4th Virgin Islands caucus and the rest of the Judgment Day/June 7th primaries — New Jersey, New Mexico, Montana, North Dakota, & South Dakota (the California article is already written, HERE).

In the meantime, do not forget about Puerto Rico’s open primary! I believe that we have the potential to do very, very well, there — and, if we can do that, it will help take some of the pressure off of us on Judgment Day!

Remember: ever single delegate counts! If you are a Spanish-speaker, now is the time — por favor, mi amigos,offer your Spanish-speaking phonebanking services to the campaign!

Now is the time for us to push harder than we ever have! Things are looking very promising in California but we have to do better than they expect us to — have you seen the doom-sayers & the dementor-like trolls in the comment thread? Together, we need to show those ghouls what the political revolution is made of! Don’t worry about arguing with them — the best way to defeat them is to put all of your energy into building the movement by donating,phonebanking, canvassing,  and sharing pro-Bernie articles & pictures on social media! Then, when Bernie Sanders is the President of the United States of America, we’ll all come back and have a good laugh together in the comment-section, at their expense.

I must away, now — stay kickin’ up dust… 

In solidarity,
John Laurits
& the People’s Math Front #SeeYouInPhilly

 

P.S. One last thing! I’ve been doing some of the numbers about the campaign finances for both Sanders & Clinton — please, you must continue to donate! I cannot emphasize this point enough — Clinton is holding corporate fundraisers everyday but Bernie Sanders only has you (yes, you! the one reading this)! 

I am formally entreating you — no, begging you! — to donate to the Sanders Campaign right now, if you have the means. No contribution is too small — even if you can only spare a dollar, spare it! CLICK HERE to donate to Bernie Sanders!

P.P.S. Can this be part of the soundtrack in Philly?

 

 


Footnotes:

*Note on helping with our delegate strategy: After checking out the website that I linked above (HERE it is, if you missed it), if you’re looking to learn more or assist in any way, please go find Don Ford on Facebook — he is very active on FB & often has long Q&A’s and strategy-meetings, there. Just tell him, “John Laurits sent me,” and (if he’s got the time, he’s a busy dude) he’ll probably be able to help you figure out how to get involved.

**Also, here is the official Bernie Sanders campaign link for becoming a delegate to the national convention.

***All of the images & charts in this article are the fantastic work of my friend & fellow precariat, Jacob Yona — so, give the guy a round of applause & check out the art on his website (seriously, it’s really cool)

****You can follow John on Twitter @JohnLaurits. And, if ye’d like, you can also help out by buying John coffee HERE, which he is always very grateful for.

 

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