The Real Numbers: California
May 27, 2016
The Golden State: According to Math
Warmest greetings, my friends! Today, I’m going to drop some very important numbers to prepare you for…
The Battle of California!
Of course, you all know — as well as I — that the California primary has the power to make or break each of the candidates for democratic nominee.
With a stunning 475 pledged delegates at stake, the fight for the Golden State will be a battle for the heart of our democracy — its results shall blare & resound like roaring thunder in the teleprompters of every TV station in the nation and they shall flash with the brightness of ten-thousand suns on the screens of millions of Facebook & Twitter feeds.
Verily, on that day, some shall rejoice, while others shall cast their faces down & gnash their teeth!
So, Does Bernie Sanders Stand a Chance?
Yes. Well, that does it for this section. Let’s move on!
Our numbers are looking better and better by the day, my friends! Whatever the media says, they can’t argue with math — and, because I know that you all are very busy, I’ve gathered all the latest numbers for you! They’re inside this article — come, follow me!
Here’s the Newest Poll
Yesterday, the 26th, the non-partisan Public Policy Institute released a new poll showing a mere 2% between Sanders and Clinton and that’s within the poll’s margin of error, which means that they’re essentially tied! The 12-point lead that Clinton held in California at the beginning of 2016 has utterly disappeared and, as I’ve written about in a previous article, this trend seems likely to continue over the next 11 days until the June 7th primaries.
Beside the fact that it’s all suddenly tied-up, another very interesting feature of the new poll is that Clinton’s lead among nonwhite voters appears to have vanished in California!
But don’t start laughing with glee, yet! Read the rest of this article because these are just the first of many reasons to rejoice!
Now, the polls have been spotty (at best!) during this primary cycle — and I believe that Sanders is doing even better than the polls are showing in California. Though I’m certain all the trolls in the comment section will loudly disagree, I think that there’s good evidence that many pollsters are making a mistake by assuming that the age demographics on June 7th will follow the patterns of previous primary seasons.
The trolls can call me names, repeat their slogans, & yell all they want — but numbers are my ally — and a powerful ally they are. Behold!
the New California Voters!
According to California’s Secretary of State’s May 24th news release, there was a 200,000-strong surge of new voter registrations on the 16th & 17th, followed by another surge of 194,655 on the night of the 23rd, which was the deadline to register to participate in the primaries. The registrations from May alone add up to more than half a million new voters!More than half of them are ages 17-35 and 42% of the registrations on the 23rd were ages 17-25.
This all comes after over a million new voters registered between January and April — all together, this comes to about 1.8 million new voters this year! That means that there will be about 18 million registered voters on June 7th and, as of April, about70% of registered California voters were registered as democrats or no party preference — precisely the two groups who will be voting in the democratic primary. This represents about a 2 million voter increase from 2008, when Clinton & Obama faced off — and it appears that this increase is mostly made of voters between 17-35!
In addition to being young, the new registrations are overwhelmingly democratic voters or voters with “no party preference.” According tothis analysis of the registration surge between January and March,democratic registration increased 185%, no-party-preference registration increased by 65%. Meanwhile, the overall registration of voters age 18-24 increased 70% and voters age 25-30 increased 161%!
All of these numbers favor us
The tide is turning, my friends — with the State Department’s recent condemnation of Clinton’s dishonest statements about the email scandal, even MSNBC is starting to turn against her, as can be seen in this video — and keep in mind: these are some of Clinton’s most loyal media defenders!
This is our time, Berners!
Clinton’s scandals are finally catching up to her and even the media can’t let her off the hook, anymore! Clinton broke her promise to debate before the June 7th primaries and her campaign is dumping money into TV ads & phonebanking in California — these desperate actions only show how scared they really are.
They are scared of losing California and losing it badly — they know that this is a very real possibility.
Let’s make those fears justified!
Clinton is engaging in a lot of fund-raisers & campaigning in California — we must counter her by DONATING to Bernie Sanders’ campaign!
Clinton is phonebanking in California — let’s phonebank 10x as much! We have massive, popular grassroots support — she does not and that is her greatest weakness.
The Clinton-Machine will continue to try to make us lose hope — and we will continue to defy them! Defy them bydonating, defy them by phonebanking, & defy them by sharing this article & others like it!
California is BERNING. Let them know about it.
John Laurits #SeeYouInPhilly
P.S. The recent speed with which I have been able to churn out articles is due to the success (so far) of my new “gofundme” for the People’s Math Front. The funds that we’ve raised so far has allowed me to hire two dedicated researchers for several hours each day — this takes some of the burden of fact-finding & number-digging off my shoulders so that I can dedicate more time to calculating & writing. Thanks!
If you liked this article, maybe you should check out this new article about the overall state of the race (with math to back it up):
NEW! This Is Where We Stand ⇐ Click There!