Post-Indiana Math for Bernie

the writing of john laurits

Indiana: The After-MATH

bernie math article

Indiana:
The After-MATH

Greetings, friends & foes!
I’ll be brief tonight but I felt that I had to update you all on what Indiana means for us — because lord-knows the media sure as hell isn’t gonna be straight with you! But first, I’d like to congratulate Senator Bernie Sanders as well as all of you Berners because…

**The Sand-Man Has Taken Indiana!**

Tonight we should rejoice! We should rejoice because the movement is obviously still building strength, as our victory in Indiana shows — while Clinton is losing steam and running out of corporate money.

I imagine that some of you may be disappointed that we didn’t hit our target of 64.4% in Indiana — that’s why I’m here to show you that our numbers are still looking good (no matter what the million-dollar trolls below may be blathering about).  It is, indeed, true that our target number has shifted slightly — in order to obtain the 2,026 pledged delegates that we’re after, instead of 64.4%, we will now be needing 65.5% of the remaining delegates that are up for grabs.

This is because (as of this moment, 9:00PM PDT) we’ve taken 44 delegates today and Clinton has taken 39, according to the green papers, leaving Sanders with 1,414 and Clinton with 1,704 delegates. Now, remember that 2,026 is half +1 of the total delegate count and that’s what we’re aiming for, right? Now, subtract Sanders’ 1,414 from 2,026:

1,414 – 2,026 = 612

So, now we need 612 out of the remaining 933 delegates, which means:

612 ÷ 933 = 0.655 or 65.5%

Thus, even though we fell a bit short of our 64.4% target, it has only shifted our overall goal by about 1%. Now, we must set our eyes upon the next contest in West Virginia, which occurs on May 10th and is an open primary — and, my friends, our prospects are looking very good there! Let’s see if we can drop that target of 65.5% down a notch or two, shall we?

A Few Quick Numbers from
West Virginia

I shall leave you now, my friends, with this last few numbers, which should embolden you all, fan the flames of hope in your hearts, and spur you to fight for Sanders even more valiantly than you already have! According to PPP’s recent poll in West Virginia, Sanders is leading Clinton with 45% to 37%! According to Public Policy Polling, Sanders and Clinton are neck and neck with registered democrats, with Sanders trailing by only 2 points (43% to 41%) — but, among independents who will be voting in the open primary, Sanders destroys Clinton with 56% to her 19%!

Do not let these numbers lull you into complacency and laziness, however — now is the time for every single one of us who has the time to get on those phones! I want to hear West Virginia ring all the way over here in Oregon! Every single fraction of a percentage point that we can get will lower the targets that we have to hit in future states!

I, for one, have faith in you all — the numbers are with us!

In solidarity,
John Laurits

#StillSanders

*All numbers pulled from the Green Papers (also, keep in mind that, at the time of writing, there was 97% reporting from the Indiana primary)

The Only Candidate That Can Defeat the GOP: According to Math

the only candidate

According to Math:
The Only Candidate That Can Unite the Country, Win the General Election,
& Defeat the GOP is Bernie Sanders

Greetings, my friends! And greetings my foes, too…

Thus far we’ve been carefully examining the simple math behind the currently-quite-heated Democratic Primaries and, whatever the Clinton Campaign or the corporate media says, I believe it is clear that, not only are the primaries not over, but we are on track for a contested convention if we want it badly enough. This time around, however, I’d like to move forward in time a bit to get a closer view of the general election itself.

It’s fairly obvious that the Clinton campaign, their million dollar troll army, and the mainstream media would like us to believe that Hillary Clinton is plainly the strongest candidate and, indeed, the only candidate that the American public would support strongly enough to handily defeat the neo-fascists Trump or Cruz, who’ve commandeered the now-extremist Republican Party — but I simply must ask (bet ya didn’t see this one coming) — does that narrative actually… add up?

The Democratic Party vs. Democracy Itself

The Democratic Party once enjoyed a respected status amongst the people of the United States as the party that supported the people’s agenda (hence, the name) and fought for workers rights against the interests of big business. Unfortunately, for us and the party, this no longer seems to be the prevalent attitude in the, uh — hmm, what’s it called… you know? — the democracy.

According to Gallup, in September 2015, a mere 27% of Americans identified themselves as Democrats — though, over the course of these primaries, that number has risen to 31% as many young people have registered temporarily to vote in the United States’ many closed primaries. A bit sad, huh? Take heart, though! Because, not only have the ranks of the Democrats been deflating, but those who consider themselves to be Republicans has fallen to a pitiful 25%! 1 in four Americans!

All of this kinda begs the question, though… Where have all the American voters gone? Hmm… let’s take a look…

They’re not over here on the right…

…you can’t hide from me, voters!  *whistles*

And they’re not over here on the left, either…

Aha! I’ve found them!

As of April 2016, having apparently grown weary of both the GOP and the DNC’s shenanigans, an overwhelming 44% of US voters now identify as independents! And, since there are approximately 235,248,000 citizens of voting age in the US, that means that there are potentially more than 103 million independent voters because:

0.44 x 235,248,000 = 103,509,120

Ok, so: putting aside the future math of the primaries for a moment (which we’ve examined here, here, and then, here),let’s look at who will be voting in the general election — which, of course, will be open to everyone regardless of party affiliation, quite unlike the closed “Democratic” primaries, where Clinton has performed best.

We must note that, since September, the number of registered Democrats has clawed its way back up to 31%, in large part due to the vast influx of young millennial voters who have registered largely to vote for Sanders in the Primary (according to exit polls in WI, MI, & NH, Sanders took a massive 81-84% of voters ages 18-29).

Therefore, thus far (as of April), we can suspect that US voters will, more or less, be:

25% Republican | 31% Democrat | 44% Independent

Obviously, the Democratic vote — which is likely to be somewhere in the 27-31% range in November — is quite polarized at the moment. Of the delegates won so far, Sanders and Clinton have 1370 and 1665, respectively, and because:

1,370 + 1665 = 3,035

Then — out of 3,035 delegates won so far — Sanders and Clinton currently have:

1,370 / 3,035 = .4514 or 45.1%

And

1,665 / 3,035 = .5485 or 54.9%

And thus it stands: with 14 primaries to go (and a couple more to investigate…), 55% of registered democrats (those who could or even knew they had register, anyway) appear to favor Clinton, while 45% favor Sanders.Fairly straightforward numbers, some might think — but they’d be wrong

We can’t forget that, even if Clinton were to maintain 55% for the rest of the primaries, it would still be 55% of 31% of US voters, or:

0.55 x 31 = 17.05 or about 17%

Which means — at best — just slightly over 1 in 6 US voters want Clinton to be the Democratic nominee. But let’s see what the independents and unaffiliated voters have to say before we make any judgments, here…

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